The Way This Bizarre Campaign Redefined the Traditional Coach of the Year Blueprint.
Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward script. It commonly serves as a type of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our preseason projections.
On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the largest improvement is handed the award. In practice, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or just the greatest upset.
Yet the current race is profoundly unique. The pool of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference champions falling away and recent underperformers rising collectively. Under an ordinary season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in this turbulent and thrilling year, he's facing multiple other elite candidates.
Here is how the hypothetical ballot ought to look.
5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5
Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.
The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to create big plays out of nothing.
Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.
During a typical season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But the current is not a normal campaign!
Where his case comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. But he comes up just short here.
4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4
Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.
What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.
The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.
After an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.
The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.
3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record
Every Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.
Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.
Still