🔗 Share this article

Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."

Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion

The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.

Debates encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."

Request for Broader Discussion

Westminster must participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."